Tonight’s 10 game slate starts at 7:05 EST and has tons of options that should spread out ownership and allow the wise DFS player to focus on making the best plays based on the stats that have the greatest chance of paying off in a first place finish. These are my favorite slates, but I am always wary of my own biases. For example, I do not think Lance Lynn is a good pitcher and I hate to roster him (just look through his game logs), but he has a great matchup tonight in St Louis against a statistically bad COL team. His price really stands out at 7.4k.
When looking at stats it’s important to check how teams perform differently vs. LH/RH starters. Take BOS for example. Their K% vs. LHPs is 28% which makes Garrett Crotchet one of the most appealing starters tonight in spite of the fact that BOS ripped the White Sox last night for 15 runs. Similarly, MIA stands out as being particularly ineffective vs. LHPs and Logan Allen at 6.9k is also in play.
More pitchers to consider: Cooper Criswell gets to face the CWS, but I’m not too impressed with his upside. Nick Lodolo should get the Ks vs. the Cubs, but a number of CHC are swinging the bats well right now so the ERs may negate the positive K environment. Chris Bassitt gets an easy start at OAK and Michael King should have success facing ARI at home. Take a look at my SP Chart on Twitter for all of the important surface stats to consider for tonight’s slate.
There are plenty of offensive team options to consider for stacking. HOU has perhaps the best matchup as they face Griffin Canning in LA. Canning doesn’t do enough to keep HOU from getting good contact on the ball and a few players on HOU are swinging hot bats. LAD has a marquee matchup in NY vs the Yankees and Poteet doesn’t sway me off of the high priced Dodgers. CIN draws a lot of walks vs. LHPs. They faced Steele last week and walked 5 times. Expect them to put some more pressure on Steele and the Cubs bullpen. CIN is swinging the bats much better lately. Finally, there are the LAA vs. Framber Valdez. I never like to attack a GB pitcher, but Framber can give up big games and LAA is surprisingly good vs. LHPs. You can definitely put together 5 Angels with good stats this year vs. LHPs.
I have been messing around with some mini stacks in smaller contests to include more players that I have been identifying that are riding hot streaks. I like to put together rosters with 3-3-2 or 3-2-2-1 mini stacks. That is probably how I will use the list of players provided below.
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Garrett Crochet, SP: $8,900 – Crochet has a 30% K rate and BOS has almost a 30% K rate vs. LHPs. If the average K rate is 20%, then both the SP and the Opponent strikeout 30% more than average. The math is confusing me at the moment, but that definitely will be the highest K environment on the slate.
Logan Allen, SP: $6,900 – Before he got blown up in Colorado, Allen had put up DFS scores of 18, 27, and 19. MIA is about the worst offense vs. LHPs. They strikeout at a normal clip, but they do not walk much and they do not hit the ball hard. MIAs best hitters are lefties, and Allen could put up a gem at a low price here.
Yainer Diaz, C: $3,500 – I highlighted Diaz last Friday because the underlying data pointed to a hot streak coming, but he went 0 fer. He has now hit a HR in 3 straight games and everyone knows now that he is hot. Keep buying the cheap C, especially in a good hitting environment.
Freddie Freeman, 1B: $5,500 – Freeman has some of the best hitting tools in the game and he gets a great HR park at Yankee Stadium. There is no unrecognized value here because Freeman’s home park is also good for HRs, but this is a solid play to put in any kind of lineup.
Zack Gelof, 2B: $3,200 – I’m not sure how to incorporate Gelof other than as a one off on my rosters. I hesitate to play one offs against Bassitt, but Gelof is playing a lot better and he is cheap.
Chris Morel, 3B: $4,500 – Morel has been hot of late. He has to face a strikeout pitcher when he himself struggles with Ks, but the park is friendly for hitting and Morel is hot.
Zack Neto, SS: $3,000 – Here is another low cost play that you could group with some other Angels to form a nice full or mini stack vs. Valdez. Neto is another of these guys who is barrelling the ball well and limiting Ks. He also has 8 SBs on the year.
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $5,300 – Alvarez doesn’t really go on hot streaks, he just becomes who he usually is, one of the best true power hitters in the game. Hopefully, HOU gets some of its injured players back and the lineup around him is elite again. Alvarez is very worth it at his price.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF: $4,900 – Here is a player who has been hot pretty much all year. I would feel great rostering 3 Dodgers tonight and would be sure to include Teoscar whose price has fallen below the 5k threshold for the first time in a while.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
We might get some rain in Kansas City that interrupts play, but that’s really no concern given the way I am playing this slate. Forget rain for a minute….what about wind!!! We have lots of wind that will play a role tonight and help the hitters at Yankee Stadium, Great American Small Park, and on the southside of Chicago.
Doing Lines In Vegas
As expected, the game total for HOU is near the highest on the slate. There is also a large O/U in Kansas City, so that is interesting considering the weather update. Otherwise we have some pretty middling totals that allow us to really roster whoever the heck we want to tonight regardless of ownership and feel pretty good about our chances.
